In a show of military power and diplomatic strength, Iran conveyed clear messages to the West last week by launching missiles and holding extensive maritime exercises; Messages that, most of all, imply that Tehran’s readiness to confront and reject any reconciliation in the nuclear negotiations.

The “Sustainable Energy 2” exercise, which took place for two days in the waters of the northern Indian Ocean and the Oman Sea, ended on Friday with the extensive partnership of the maritime units. The exercise witnessed the unveiling and testing of a new generation of domestic cruise missiles; The move, according to analysts, is a clear symbol of Iran’s determination to strengthen the capability of deterrence and military self -reliance.

Iran Multi -Level Exercise; Simultaneous display of missile and marine power

During this military maneuver, a set of advanced weapons was used; Including accurate guided missiles, submarines, drones and coastal systems. At the same time, electronic warfare units exhibited their operational capability by simulating scenarios of confrontation with enemies equipped with new technologies.

The peak of the exercise arose when the Genaveh missile and the Sabalan destroyer fired three species of anti -cruise missiles at the same time: “Qader” with medium range, “long range” and Nasir with short range. All three missiles successfully destroyed the predetermined targets, according to the Al -Monitor News website. Iranian commanders describe the achievement as part of a multilayer arsenal whose main mission is to prevent and counter powerful fleets such as the US Fifth Fleet.

Along with the maritime exercise, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also launched a surprise missile exercise that led to the temporary blocking of western Iranian airspace in the early hours of Friday. The action was evaluated as an experiment to measure the readiness of sudden air strikes. Although few details were released in the official media, the observers saw the maneuver as a sign of Iran’s determination to respond rapidly. At the same time, Iranian officials warned of the fragility of the ceasefire with Israel after the June 6 -day war and implicitly raised the possibility of a new round of clashes; A message that, along with the missile and maritime power, provides a clear picture of Tehran’s deterrence strategy.

Diplomacy in the shadow of rockets; Coincidence

According to the Al -Monitor base, Iranian diplomats were in challenging negotiations about the nuclear program as the missiles fired in the Oman Sea. Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi questioned the legitimacy of their efforts to activate the “quick return mechanism” in the UN Security Council in separate phone calls with his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany, as well as with the EU foreign policy chief. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in an official statement that Abbas Arakchi has rejected the three European powers for such a move and warned of the “consequences” of any effort in this regard. He also emphasized that Tehran would rely on Russian and China’s support in the Security Council if necessary.

Finally, the parties agreed to resume negotiations at the level of deputy foreign ministers; A meeting that will take place only a week before the European deadline for deciding on sanctions, and from the analysts’ point of view, it could play a decisive role in the future of talks.

Signs indicate that the possibility of activating the “trigger mechanism” by three European countries is a growing Troica member. Meanwhile, a meeting is scheduled to take place on Tuesday; A meeting, according to diplomats, is to limit the process of uranium enrichment and resume Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. However, if the agreement is not reached, the likelihood of activation of the “trigger mechanism” will be increased; An action that can bring widespread legal and political consequences for the future of the nuclear deal. However, experts believe that the implementation of this mechanism will face serious obstacles and will have a difficult and time -consuming process.

Overall, the coincidence of Iran’s military power with missile and maritime exercises and the continuation of diplomatic bargaining in the nuclear case presents a dual image of Tehran’s policy.

Experts emphasize that the process of implementing the “mechanism of trigger” is accompanied by a great deal of legal and political complexity, and this can become a serious obstacle to its practical realization. According to them, one must distinguish between “decision to activate” and “real implementation” of this mechanism; Because the foreseen legal path is time -consuming and challenging.

Trigger mechanism; European legal tools to restore sanctions against Iran

The “trigger” mechanism in the nuclear deal of the year (Brjam) is allowed to restore UN sanctions if any partners of the participant are identified if Iran’s violations are violated. The process of activating this mechanism consists of several steps: first, submitting a complaint to the Joint Commission and the beginning of a six -day deadline for negotiation. If the result is not obtained, the matter will be referred to the foreign ministers, and then, the expert committee can take action for further investigation. If there is still no solution, the case will be sent to the UN Security Council; Where, if a resolution is not adopted within five days of suspension of sanctions, all previous sanctions will be automatically returned.

Dr. Mohammad Saleh al -Harbi, an expert on international affairs, believes that the international community is pursuing a forefront meeting between Iran and European Troika. He warns that if Tehran does not take tangible measures to reduce tension, the likelihood of activating the “trigger mechanism” will increase; Even though the Brajam nuclear deal is approaching the final days of its life. “We are on the verge of a fateful stage in Iran’s nuclear case,” says Mohammad Saleh al -Harbi. There is no longer a chance for tactical maneuvers or sending symbolic messages. Europe, which has emphasized the continuation of the dialogue for years, is threatening to restore UN sanctions today; “The threat that is based directly on the basis of a clear legal establishment in the Brotherhood, the same trigger mechanism.”

Al -Harbi points out: “The ahead meeting is not merely a diplomatic meeting, but a real test to measure Iran’s seriousness in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency and limit the level of uranium enrichment; A level that has now exceeded the limits set in the nuclear deal. “The recent escalation of tensions, including the suspension of cooperation with international inspectors and the mutual military reactions of concern and fear over the shadow area.” Al -Harbi also note that although the European “mechanism” activation will be accompanied by a lot of executive complexity and its practical implementation has serious difficulties, the signs of the tendency to use these legal tools among European capitals have increased significantly.

In his final remarks, al -Harbi emphasizes: “Europe is no longer in the former place for maximum pressure on Iran. What is pursuing today, rather than being powerful, is an attempt to guarantee a contribution to any new understanding. Europeans are particularly eye -catching in Iranian infrastructure and industrial projects; From oil and gas to logistics and ports. ” He recalls that US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the launch of sanctions took great economic opportunities from European companies, and many large -scale energy and infrastructure contracts were suspended. According to al -Harbi, the return of Europe to the negotiating table is partly related to this economic motivation.

Iran between the European Troic Pressure and the Threat of the Mechanism of the Terrorism

Hashim Suleiman, an Iranian affairs expert, said in a statement: “The foregoing meeting is not merely a diplomatic dialogue, but also an area that is influenced by the tendencies of some European parties to redefine Western and Iranian relations; Relations that, in the event of a new Israeli war with US support, can enter a sensitive and risky phase. ” “These conversations are held in a situation where Tehran is trying to abandon some of the internal currents from its foreign relations case with the West,” he said. “The case is now managed by Ali Larijani, who has recently chaired the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.”

According to Suleiman, “Tehran follows recent meetings in the context of a policy that can be called moderate strictness; “On the one hand, an approach is to exploit the disputes and waste of time to provide an opportunity to rebuild the defensive capability and continue the nuclear program after the 6 -day war dams.” “Larijani is well aware that this timeframe will be transferred to the United States by Troika to prevent any possible Israeli military action against Iran and at the same time, to create a new understanding of the” peaceful “nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” he said.

Suleiman said at the end: “Another part of Larijani’s efforts and his team at a meeting with Troika is to prevent the adoption of new European sanctions and reduce some of the existing sanctions; “The move that could guarantee his superior to conservative currents while at the same time responds to Europeans’ demands to restrict uranium enrichment, cooperation with the Agency and the return of inspectors.”

Overall, the simultaneous representation of Iran’s military power with missile and maritime exercises and the continuation of diplomatic bargaining in the nuclear case presents a dual image of Tehran’s policy; A policy that relies on defensive and self -reliance on the one hand, and on the other hand, is involved in the increasing pressures of European Troica and the threat of “trigger mechanism”. In the meantime, the differences of views on the future of the brokerage, European economic interests and the role of figures such as Ali Larijani show that the previous meeting will not only be on the nuclear restrictions but also on a new balance between Iran, the West and their allies.